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Reprinted from Applied
Economics, Volume 21, Saffer H, Chaloupka FJ, Breath testing and highway
fatality rates, 901-912, 1989, with permission from Routledge This paper presents an
empirical investigation of the effect of a preliminary breath test law
on highway fatality rates. A preliminary breath test law reduces the procedural
problems associated with obtaining evidence of drunk driving and thus
increases the probability that a drunk driver will be arrested. According
to the theory of deterrence, increasing the probability of arrest for
drunk driving will reduce the occurrence of this behaviour. The data set
employed to test the theory is a time series from 1980 to 1985 of cross
sections of the 48 contiguous states of the United States. Four highway
fatality rates are used as measures of drunk driving. The effect of the
breath test law was estimated using four independent variable models and
12 dummy variable models. The four independent variable models were also
estimated using Leamer's specification test. The purpose of using these
alternative specifications and Leamer's specification test was to examine
the breath test coefficients for specification bias. The econometric results
show that the passage of a breath test law has a significant deterrent
effect on drunk driving. Simulations with these results suggest that if
all states had a preliminary breath test law, highway fatalities could
be reduced by about 2000 deaths per year.
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